Nov 04, 2026
With hurricane season reaching its end, the Atlantic Ocean is seemingly set to stay how it has mostly been for months: quiet. November marks the beginning of South Florida’s dry season, but El Niño, the weather pattern scientists say is partially responsible for the calmer season, is forecast to continue through the winter. “So, we’re expecting much warmer-than-normal water temperatures across the Pacific Ocean this winter,” said National Weather Service Miami Meteorologist Robert Moyeda. Experts said this year’s record-breaking version of the phenomenon, dubbed “Super El Niño,” is likely to change Florida’s winter. Sunrise saw massive flooding at Sawgrass Mills and Amerant Bank Arena on Monday and Tuesday, and record-setting rain in Brevard County caused what experts are calling “the 1,000-year flood.” “The outlook for this winter for South Florida is for increased chances of above-normal rainfall, so more rainfall than we would typically see during an average winter,” said Moyeda. “And also with that, an increased chance of severe weather events, including tornadoes, across the state of Florida.” Many factors played a role into how this year’s hurricane season developed. El Niño and La Niña are well-known players. During the former, sea surface temperatures in a certain part of the Pacific Ocean heat up higher than usual. Before its normal peak, it has already broken records. “This upcoming El Niño event has the possibility of being the strongest on record since 1950, when we started to measure the water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and categorize these events as El Niño or La Niña,” said Moyeda. The “Super El Niño” is very likely to change winter in Florida, as the system could deliver a wetter, warmer and more tornado-prone winter to the Sunshine State. Experts said climate change could play a role, so residents should prepare for anything. “With the expectation of a very strong El Niño and the impacts that it could lead to this winter, which one of those being an increased likelihood of severe weather, tornadoes even, across the Florida peninsula and South Florida. We want to make sure that people understand that tornadoes can be very damaging,” said Moyeda. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s U.S. winter outlook also gave a closer look into what to expect in the coming months. Florida’s temperatures are predicted to be near normal, but precipitation chances are above average. ...read more read less
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