Democratic incumbent Sen. Ruth Hardy, left, speaks during an Addison County Senate candidates forum in Addison on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Seated next to her are Republican challenger Andrew Klein, Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Heffernan, and Democratic challenger Hannah Sessions. Photo by Glen n Russell/VTDigger Theo Wells-Spackman is a Report for America corps member who reports for VTDigger. On election night in November 2024, a red wave crashed over the Vermont Senate.  In a single evening, the GOP shattered Democratic supermajorities in both legislative chambers and nearly doubled conservative membership in the Senate to gain Republicans’ highest share of power there since 2000. “Certainly the biggest thing to rectify,” Vermont Democratic Party Chair Lachlan Francis said wryly of his party’s strategy this fall, “is winning.” Weeks ahead of Election Day, leaders across the political spectrum are watching a number of competitive Senate races closely. While Democrats seek to make up ground in Montpelier as the national party gains momentum in midterm polling, Republicans want to build on their newfound legislative clout to flip control of the chamber for the first time in decades. For former Sen. Chris Bray, an Addison County Democrat who served nearly two decades in the Statehouse and was among those voted out on Nov. 5, 2024, the outcome wasn’t entirely surprising. As “shock and dismay” rolled in from his legislative colleagues through texts, calls and emails, Bray said in an interview last week, he reflected on a deep uneasiness he’d felt over much of the six-month campaign. The former Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee chair recalled warning colleagues during a June 2024 veto session that “people are upset and angry” over property tax spikes in particular. Conservative messaging around the Legislature’s role in that problem, Bray argued, was “unfair and inaccurate” and took advantage of a poorly understood issue for the electorate. Ultimately, the political fallout was intense, with Republican Gov. Phil Scott conducting an “orchestra” of affordability-focused messaging, according to state GOP Chair Paul Dame. Nationwide, Republicans managed to flip roughly 50 state legislative seats that evening. Twenty-six were in Vermont, according to a post-election report written in part by Francis. Alongside Bray, then-Sen. Mark MacDonald, D-Orange, whom voters had sent to the Legislature for three cumulative decades, lost decisively to GOP challenger Larry Hart. Republican Pat Brennan flipped the Grand Isle County seat long held by the late center-left veteran Dick Mazza. And three more seats turned red, adding now-Senate Minority Leader Scott Beck to the chamber representing Caledonia County, as well as Sen. Chris Mattos and former Sen. Sam Douglass on behalf of the Chittenden North district and Orleans district, respectively. Beck said in an interview recently that his party’s wins in 2024, which brought GOP Senate membership to 13 out of 30, placed outright control of the chamber “much more within reach.” And if Republicans are making a pitch to control the legislative agenda in the Senate for the first time since 1996, he said, it’s more important than ever for voters to understand the caucus’s priorities. Beck has been a central architect of Senate Republicans’ Vermont Promise campaign this year, which lays out a slate of goals ranging from property tax reforms to repealing the state’s “Raise the Age” law that routes young adults charged with most offenses through juvenile delinquency proceedings instead of criminal court.  For Dame, part of the effect of Vermont Promise is to separate his party from national Republicans, who face what he called a negative environment.  “I think it sets up that contrast,” Dame said, adding that the policy slate concentrates on the issues over which state legislators have the most direct control.  Beck, for his part, said national GOP policies did not figure into the campaign’s creation. He and his colleagues simply sought to lay out their plans for controlling Vermonters’ costs, among other goals, he said. Beck faces a challenge in the general election from Democrat David Roth. The anti-incumbent sentiment that Democrats experienced in 2024 may be a factor again this November, according to Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale, D-Chittenden Southeast, who serves as Senate majority leader. But this time, she said, Republican lawmakers and the governor in particular have had considerably more policy influence to answer for in the last two years. “I don’t think any political party can rest on their laurels and say, ‘Those are our red voters, or our blue voters,’” she said in an interview. For Francis, the Trump administration’s influence in recent years — including broad cuts to social services, fuel price increases during the Iran war and a continuing trade conflict with Canada — are sure to have a local electoral impact in November. State lawmakers, he said, can make a difference to Vermonters’ pocketbooks one way or another, regardless of their ability to intervene in national or international affairs. “Everywhere you go, people are seeing the ripple effects of federal policy, and it’s affecting negatively their community,” he said. “I think there’s no doubt that’s going to motivate people of like mind with Democrat candidates to get out and vote.” When national Republicans gained momentum across the country in 2024, Ram Hinsdale said, some Vermont conservatives were “happy to ride that wave.” Now, she said, “They have to take a side.” Ram Hinsdale faces a challenge this fall from Republicans Bruce Roy, Javen Sears and Rohan St. Marthe in the three-seat Chittenden Southeast district. ‘The greatest vulnerability and the greatest opportunity’ Addison County is the state’s only Senate district with both Democratic and Republican representation.  Strategists agreed that the race for the district’s two seats may be the most closely watched contest of the cycle. Republican Sen. Steve Heffernan, who overcame Bray two years ago, and Democratic Sen. Ruth Hardy face two well-funded challenges from political newcomers Hannah Sessions and Andrew Klein. Democratic challenger Hannah Sessions chats with a prospective voter at the end of an Addison County Senate candidates forum in Addison on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Republican challenger Andrew Klein, right, chats with another voter behind her. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger “It’s sort of like the greatest vulnerability and the greatest opportunity at the same time,” said Dame of his party’s newfound half-grip on the Addison district. For East Middlebury’s Hardy, 2024 represented a particular moment of political anger over property taxes and several other issues. Although those concerns have not dissipated, “I don’t think it means that there’s a shift overall in Addison County,” she said in an interview, adding that issues like childcare and education reform have been her focus during her Senate tenure. “This year, I’m feeling a different feel, you know? I think people are scared about what’s happening at the federal level. They’re worried about losing their rights.” Sessions, a Democrat who owns a goat dairy farm and cheese operation in Leicester, agreed.  “The big picture is one that we can’t ignore,” she said, pointing to new tariffs’ effects on local economies and to the end of expanded federal healthcare subsidies. Donald Trump’s election in 2016 was part of what pushed her toward political work in the first place, Sessions added. A “rural-urban divide” by Vermont’s definitions that she saw emerging around land use and agriculture has also been a factor. “Being a farmer that’s a Democrat, I thought that I could be useful in, you know, approaching some of these really sensitive topics,” Sessions said in a recent interview. Klein, who spent years in finance and real estate before moving to Vermont and serving as a lieutenant with the Middlebury Fire Department and technical rescue team, enters the race as a self-described “Rockefeller Republican.” In the past, the New Haven resident has essentially been a fiscally conservative Democrat while living in New York and Connecticut, he said in an interview — and none of his beliefs has changed. “I’d never make it through the primary as a Democrat,” Klein said, adding “it’s not like I shoehorned myself in there — I actually am a Vermont centrist Republican.” And within the dynamics of the county, he feels his goals — which include pushing for financial efficiency on services like education while acknowledging the state’s fundamental need for more tax revenue — fit the bill, particularly given the electoral shifts in 2024 that allowed Heffernan to overcome Bray by fewer than 700 votes. Heffernan, a Bristol resident, said in an interview that he believed the 2024 election illustrated the importance of political balance in the Legislature. A long-term supermajority on either side that can disregard the governor, he said, is not a recipe for success. Pocketbook issues such as property taxes, coupled with what Heffernan called inadequate outcomes from public services like education, likely swayed people two years ago, he said. The national political context, he added, has little relevance to his role as a state lawmaker. His priorities in Montpelier have included education reform and supporting the farm economy, he said. The Senate challengers in Addison County have mounted two of the best-financed campaigns in the state: Klein’s contributions now total over $65,000, including $12,000 from the state Republican Party. Heffernan has raised over $81,000, second among state Senate races this cycle only to Nikhil Goyal’s record-breaking war chest in Chittenden County. Sessions has raised $77,000, and Hardy has registered $51,000. “It is crazy what either party is having to spend for a Senate race in Addison County,” Heffernan said. “That being said, that’s the nature of the beast.” All roads Essentially any path to a Republican Senate majority would need to run through Bennington County, according to Dame. Francis likewise cited the district as a primary area where Democrats need to play defense. November 2024 saw Democrats keep a relatively narrow hold on the two-seat district, which has long been a blue stronghold represented by the likes of the late Sen. Dick Sears. The Democratic nominees — then-House Rep. Seth Bongartz and Deputy State’s Attorney Rob Plunkett — won in a crowded field, with a Republican in third place falling short by fewer than 600 votes. READ MORE Three independents who also entered the race garnered nearly 9,000 votes among them. Two of the independents were former Democratic House representatives. The third, Lawrence “Spike” Whitmire, of Shaftsbury, has reemerged this fall as one of the GOP’s nominees — along with Josh Williams, of Arlington — challenging Bongartz and Plunkett. He’s always been fiscally conservative, Whitmire said in an interview Monday — and in a year where his district could make all the difference in the Senate, joining the Republicans is a more practical path to victory.  His chief priority in the Statehouse, he said, would be fiscal responsibility. Williams likewise outlined himself as a moderate, intent on controlling education spending.  Plunkett, who disputed the characterization of his campaign as “defense,” expressed confidence in the Democratic ticket’s chances. Sears’ death before the 2024 Senate primary was one of a number of factors that made that cycle a unique year for the county, said the Bennington resident. “Bennington, sort of as a whole, is more purple than many counties,” Plunkett said. “But I think we are still a strong Democratic county.” Both Republicans referenced the Vermont Promise agenda as a part of their policy platforms. For Beck, that was part of the campaign’s purpose: He has offered to meet with every Republican candidate to talk through the plan, he said, and to offer it as a partial basis for their campaigns. Despite close attention from party leadership, the Bennington challengers are worried about money. Whitmire has raised just under $13,000, and Williams sits on $18,000 — of which he himself recently contributed $10,000.  Although Democratic incumbents have raised comparable amounts, Williams said he’s at a clear disadvantage, primarily due to a lack of name recognition. “I don’t have funding to get out a postcard,” he said earlier this month. “I’m definitely concerned.” Whitmire believes his would-be constituents are simply too hard-pressed financially to furnish him with more campaign funding. But he’s striving to make up the difference through events and door-knocking, he said. Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Heffernan, center, debates Democratic challenger Hannah Sessions, right, during an Addison County Senate candidates forum in Addison on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Republican candidate Andrew Klein is on the left. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger “The big-dollar donations just — just aren’t out there,” Whitmire said. “They’re being absorbed by (the) cost of living.” However, Williams and Whitmire may have received some extra help, though both told VTDigger it came entirely without their involvement. Francis said Bennington has been a primary site of advertising paid for by political action committees. In particular, a set of mailers from the Manchester-based Common Sense PAC attacking Plunkett and Bongartz over their records on education reform and public safety has recently been the subject of formal disclosure complaints. “One of the big takeaways from 2024 was that our side got significantly outspent in paid media and expenditures,” Francis said, adding that the state party is trying to better shore up key candidates this year. Last week, the Vermont Democratic Party spent roughly $70,000 on advertising to weigh in against GOP Senate nominees. Bongartz, who said he stood firmly behind his work negotiating legislation on voluntary school district mergers this past session, told VTDigger that the mailers’ accusations were “off the wall.” “Everybody knows it’s garbage,” said the Manchester resident. “It has actually backfired and really inspired our fundraising.” In addition to the incumbents’ increased profile in the district compared with two years ago, both Democrats said they perceived less of a singular focus on property taxes among voters — something Bongartz said could foreshadow less electoral volatility come Nov. 3. Plunkett expressed eagerness to get back to working on his policy priorities, including education and reducing the cost of primary healthcare. The four major party candidates will face a challenge from Progressive Rachel Shaw, who is also running for secretary of state and did not respond to requests for comment. ‘A unique set of circumstances’ In Orange County, Rep. Monique Priestley, D-Bradford, is challenging Republican Sen. John Benson, who was appointed by Scott after Larry Hart resigned the seat he had won in 2024. “It’s certainly a unique set of circumstances,” said Dame of the contest. “Monique Priestley has been serving in the Legislature longer than John, but John is technically the incumbent.” Priestley had been considering running for the seat for some time, she said in an interview, as Mark MacDonald neared retirement. His loss in 2024 was a “major blow,” she said, but supporters — including MacDonald himself — have since encouraged her to run. From Priestley’s perspective, Benson’s unusual position levels the playing field somewhat, reducing the often overwhelming power of incumbency. “It’s the first time that he’s actually running, and the first time that I’m running,” she said. Benson, a Brookfield resident, said in a written statement that his experience in the Senate this past session will allow him to hit the ground running if reelected. The full policy results of Republican wins in 2024 have yet to be realized, he added. “There is still much more work ahead to be done,” he said. For Ram Hinsdale, Benson’s presence in the Senate was a result of the election and swift departure of several lawmakers, including Hart, “who did not expect to win, necessarily.” “Orange County could just really use a boost of representation,” she said, saying the contest between the two “pretty evenly matched” candidates for the job will rely heavily on turnout.  Members of the Addison County Sporting Group listen during an Addison County Senate candidates forum in Addison on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger The hard-fought race has attracted over $74,000 in donations for Benson and $65,000 for Priestley, placing it among the most monied contests in the state this year. While nearly all of Benson’s contributions come from inside the state, nearly 40% of Priestley’s are categorized as out-of-state. The Bradford representative, whose main policy focus is technology and internet privacy, said the difference was partly due to her national profile in those areas, as well as personal and professional networks across the country. Priestley and Dame both said that in recent years, the district may have shifted to the right. Priestley pointed to the state’s 2022 redistricting process, which moved Thetford, a relatively blue town in central Vermont, into the Windsor Senate district. Dame, for his part, suggested that Rural Vermont Rising, a diffuse political movement that emerged this spring from resistance to Vermont’s 2024 land use overhaul, may have a concrete electoral impact in Orange County in particular. Benson agreed, saying he helped pass partial rollbacks of the law last session and that the rural forum has “rightly become a huge part of the conversation.” Priestley said she has been speaking with some of the group’s most visible members for months. Though she has reservations about some aspects of the movement’s online presence, she said, she was eager to continue engaging with the group on policy issues. As far as the group’s electoral impact, she said, “there’s more questions than answers.” Read the story on VTDigger here: After upsets in 2024, parties focus on key races for balance of power in Vermont Senate. ...read more read less