A coastal low will strengthen and move closer to the tri-state and New England on Friday, bringing with it increasing wind speeds, rain and rough surf along the coast. Some of the strong winds had already developed by Thursday, along with choppy waters off Long Island and the Jersey Shore. Expect more of that to continue, with gusts topping 40 mph possibly by the afternoon, even in and around the New York City area. Those winds will get even stronger Saturday, likely in the 40-50 mph range. That goes especially for the Jersey Shore, where there is a high wind watch in effect. The breezy conditions are the result of a high pressure ridge anchored to the north and an area of low pressure to the south. An easterly wind is funneling between the two, causing a wind tunnel effect that will strengthen as the low pressure system deepens by the weekend. The track of the low is becoming more certain as the European and American long-range forecast models begin to converge on a similar solution. What we know Saturday will be the apex of the storm, with the combination of wind high surf having the biggest impact. With the seas churning all along the East Coast, it will make coastal erosion and high tide flooding a concern. Coastal flooding peaks while the wind is from the northeast, pushing ocean water onshore — so the high tides Friday evening, Saturday mid-morning and Saturday evening will be when coastal flooding is a concern. Coastal flooding will impact low-lying areas on Long Island and the Jersey Shore in the usual suspect locations. Most coastal communities will just see minor coastal flooding, with only a couple spots on Long Island and in Ocean County seeing even moderate coastal flooding. Rain starts Friday evening and will be off and on Saturday and Sunday. Totals won’t be huge for most around the tri-state: In NYC, the Hudson Valley, and much of New Jersey and Connecticut (especially inland), most can expect 1-2 inches of rain over the course of the weekend. New York City has issued a travel advisory through Sunday morning as a result of the storm. Long Island could see heavier rain, especially eastern Suffolk Count where totals of 3-4 inches are possible. However, the rain won’t come all at once, so flash flooding concerns are muted. If any flash flooding occurs, it will likely be on Long Island. Beach erosion from high surf is probably the biggest impact we’ll see — NJ beaches are already getting eaten up by big waves, that’ll only get worse through the weekend. For the vast majority in the tri-state, the storm will bring a wet and windy weekend that puts a big damper on any early fall outdoor plans — a good weekend to stay inside and read a good book or binge watch TV. The region will stay gray and chilly, with afternoon temperatures holding in the 60s. But for those along the coast, some flooding could occur, particularly around high tide, along with beach erosion. As far as nor’easters go, this one will be low to moderate impact. It is happening early in the fall, so there’s no snow involved.  Nor’easters are typically associated with strong coastal lows during the winter months that deliver howling winds, blowing snow and whiteout conditions that grind the coast to a halt; This weekend’s storm is not that. We also don’t expect it to be an extremely intense low pressure system at its height Saturday into Sunday.  Winds will be dampened somewhat because of that. The wind will relax somewhat Sunday, and the rain will taper off late Sunday into Monday. The low will begin to weaken at that time and eventually exit the region entirely, leaving quite nice weather for us next week. Expect highs in the 70s with plenty of sunshine. ...read more read less