Forecast models continue to develop a coastal low by the end of this week that could serve windy, cloudy and wet weather over the weekend. Late this week, a strong wind will funnel between high pressure to our north and low pressure offshore. The biggest impact will be coastal flooding and beach erosion from the persistent, gusty winds. Eastern Long Island will feel the brunt of it. There are still several days to go before the would-be storm directly impacts the coast. In fact, the low pressure system hasn’t even developed in the Atlantic yet.  Long-range forecast models disagree on the exact track and strength of the low, and these two factors will directly affect the degree of impact to the tri-state area.  The European forecast model develops a stronger low that passes very close to the east coast, delivering stronger wind and heavier rain. The American forecast model, on the other hand, keeps the low weaker and far offshore, resulting in lighter wind and rain. What we know We do expect the coastal low to develop, and we are confident that the biggest impacts will be felt along the immediate coast from Friday to Sunday in the form of persistent, gusty wind. On Long Island (Suffolk County in particular), wind gusts could get as high as 40-50 miles per hour.  Along the Jersey Shore and for inland areas, gusts will peak in the 30-40 mph range. The extended duration of the strong gusts will lead to beach erosion and minor to moderate coastal flooding during high tide. The full moon on Saturday will exacerbate the flooding problem. The region will stay gray and chilly, with afternoon temperatures holding in the 60s. Expect at least some rain this weekend, although the amount and extent of the rain is still very much up in the air. What remains uncertain The track of the low pressure system and its overall strength remain the biggest question marks in the forecast equation.  Currently, the European forecast model predicts a stronger low that is closer to the coast. The American forecast model, on the other hand, indicates a weaker low farther east.  In the American scenario, winds would not be as strong and rain would not be as heavy.  In fact, in the American forecast solution, New York City and most inland areas would get little to no measurable rain. ...read more read less