The Tallahassee mayoral runoff between Jeremy Matlow and Loranne Ausley will not simply be a replay of the August primary with two candidates instead of four. The geographic results from Tuesday’s election show Matlow and Ausley entering the runoff with distinctly different political coalitions. B ut perhaps the most important number for November belongs to neither candidate: the 10,466 votes cast for Daryl Parks. Matlow finished first with 14,908 votes, or 36.0%, followed by Ausley with 13,971 votes, or 33.8%. Parks captured 10,466 votes, or 25.3%, while Republican Mike Foust received 2,039 votes, or 4.9%. Together, Parks and Foust accounted for 12,505 votes — more than 30% of the votes included in the district analysis. Those voters now face a choice between Matlow, a progressive city commissioner, and Ausley, a liberal Democrat with a long history in state politics. But there is another factor that could be just as important: November is likely to feature a substantially larger and potentially more moderate electorate than the lower-turnout August primary. That means the runoff cannot be analyzed simply by redistributing the Parks and Foust votes between Matlow and Ausley. Parks Vote Concentrated in Districts 1 and 2 Parks’ support was particularly strong in District 1, which is predominantly African American. Parks received 3,119 votes there, nearly half of all votes cast in the district. Matlow finished second with 2,125, while Ausley received just 900. District 2 produced another strong Parks showing. Matlow led with 1,414 votes, but Parks was close behind with 1,211. Ausley received 557. Combined, Parks received 4,330 votes in Districts 1 and 2. Matlow received 3,539 and Ausley received only 1,457. The numbers reveal a significant challenge for Ausley in particular. Despite finishing only 937 votes behind Matlow citywide, she received approximately 2,100 fewer votes than Matlow across those two districts. The runoff therefore puts a large bloc of voters who supported Parks back into play, especially in parts of Tallahassee where Ausley performed poorly in the primary. Ausley Shows Strength in Districts 3 and 4 Ausley’s coalition looked much different. District 3, which is majority middle-class Democratic, was virtually tied. Ausley received 3,690 votes compared with Matlow’s 3,652 — a difference of only 38 votes. District 4 provided Ausley with her strongest geographic advantage. Ausley received 4,367 votes there compared with Matlow’s 2,717, giving her a 1,650-vote advantage. Parks received 1,636 and Foust received 747. The results indicate that Ausley performed particularly well in the more conservative-leaning portions of the city despite running as a Democrat. That could become more significant in November if the general election attracts voters who skipped the August primary. Matlow’s District 5 Advantage Matlow’s most important geographic advantage came from District 5, the city’s largest voting bloc and an area with a substantial progressive population. Matlow received exactly 5,000 votes, compared with Ausley’s 4,457, Parks’ 2,430 and Foust’s 587. The 543-vote Matlow advantage was not overwhelming, but the district’s size makes it particularly important. Nearly one-third of all votes in the geographic analysis came from District 5. Matlow’s performance there demonstrates the importance of his progressive base. However, the November question is whether the political composition of the electorate changes as turnout increases. The November Wild Card The biggest mistake in analyzing the runoff would be to assume the 41,384 people represented in the primary district totals constitute the November electorate. They almost certainly will not. General elections typically attract substantially more voters than August primaries. The Leon County Supervisor of Elections lists 182,806 registered voters countywide at the 2026 primary book closing, illustrating the much larger universe of potential voters beyond those who participated in the city mayoral contest. The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3. A larger November electorate could also have a different political composition. Primary elections tend to disproportionately attract voters who are more politically engaged. The November general election brings federal and statewide contests onto the ballot and can draw voters who participate less consistently in local primary elections. If that expanded electorate is more moderate than the August electorate, the change could be particularly important in a contest between a progressive candidate and a more traditional liberal Democrat. It also means Matlow’s 36%-to-33.8% primary advantage over Ausley should not necessarily be viewed as a 2.2-point head start in November. The electorate itself will change. More Than 12,000 Primary Votes Are Available Even before considering new November voters, more than 12,000 people who voted for Parks or Foust must make another choice if they vote in the mayoral runoff. Those voters come from very different portions of Tallahassee’s political landscape. Parks’ strongest support came from predominantly African American District 1. Foust’s best percentage came from conservative-leaning District 4. Parks also attracted significant support throughout the city, including 2,430 votes in District 5 and 2,070 in District 3. Matlow therefore enters November with an advantage among the voters who participated in August, but without anything approaching a majority coalition. Ausley begins only 937 votes behind, with demonstrated strength among middle-class Democrats and voters in the city’s more conservative-leaning areas, but with substantial ground separating her from Matlow in Districts 1 and 2. The primary identified each candidate’s political base. The November election will test something different: which candidate can assemble a majority from a larger and potentially different Tallahassee electorate. With 30% of primary voters having supported someone other than Matlow or Ausley — and thousands of additional voters potentially joining the electorate in November — the runoff begins less as the second round of the August election than as a new race with a different political equation. ...read more read less