Jun 16, 2026
President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened" by Friday as the U.S. and Iran look to formalize a memorandum of understanding, but questions remain about the specifics of the deal.The text of the MOU has not yet been made public, though Trump says hell release it. Officials expect to open the strait, lift the U.S. naval blockade and lead to negotiations over Irans nuclear program over a 60 day period.Oil prices fell Tuesday for a second day in the wake of officials stating the MOU was signed, with a formal ceremony expected to take place later.The ships are starting to move nicely. Oil is starting to go, and the prices are coming down rapidly, Trump said.Brent crude oil prices dropped more than 4%, remaining under $80 a barrel after a high above $100 a barrel earlier in the conflict. The national average for a gallon of regular gas dropped to $4.04, down more than 45 cents from a month ago, according to AAA.In fact, oil prices down at their lowest level since early March. That's certainly a good sign that may pave the way for continued decreasing gasoline and diesel prices across much of the country, said Patrick De Haan, vice president of petroleum analysis and media relations at GasBuddy.While De Haan said as long as the strait remains open gas prices could continue to be below $4 nationally for the summer, it could take longer for global prices to reach pre-conflict levels.Global oil inventories are billions of barrels below where they would have been had the strait been open, ald like the U.S. [Strategic Petroleup Reserve], which fell yesterday to its lowest levels since 1983, refilling global oil inventories will likely take well into 2027, De Haan said.MORE ON THE DEAL | Republicans in Congress back Trump, but want to see more about the new Iran dealThe White House has held firm that market disruptions countries and consumers have contended with since the start of conflict were short term, as public sentiment soured in polling on President Trump's handling of the economy over the course of the conflict.President Trump was clear all along that there would be short-term, temporary disruptions to energy markets, and that oil and gas prices will quickly fall as soon as the Iran situation is resolved. President Trump has a proven track record of bringing gas prices to historic lows, and the Administration continues to take aggressive action to deliver economic relief for the American people, stated Taylor Rogers, a spokeswoman for the White House."Diesel prices have started to fall, jet fuel prices have started to fall. So airfares may start to relax for the second half of the summer, maybe early into August," De Haan said. "Whereas diesel, that is an impact that is fraught with other challenges, including the administration's crackdown on CDL drivers, reducing the amount of truckers certainly is problematic, as well as diesel prices that remain elevated. But even if diesel prices do drop considerably, a lack of drivers may continue to keep truckload rates higher, and so the impact on grocery prices, on delivered goods prices, those prices may remain elevated for the next several months, as not only the price of diesel declines, but there are other problems holding those prices higher."Theres still uncertainty ahead, including over whether a deal between the U.S. and Iran holds, and the pace of increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while demining efforts continue.Senior US officials said the opening could take a little bit of time due to varying ship risk tolerance, but expect a significant increase in traffic that will ramp up slowly over time and return to normal pretty quickly, definitely within 30 days once theyve committed to get rid of all the mines.We don't have a lot of clarity yet on exactly the timing behind when ships will start going through the strait. Mines, I believe, are being removed or will need to be removed. Ships will need to get insurance before they're able to start moving again, and so it could be another week before we really start to see the backlog of ships transiting through the strait, De Haan said.RELATED STORY | US officials say Iran deal would extend ceasefire, reopen Strait of HormuzHowever, the U.S. and Iran have at times expressed conflicting views on terms for the strait.While the strait is expected to be toll free for 60 days, and officials expect that to become part of a final deal, Iran has suggested in the future it could collect costs for services."We've always said we're not after charging tolls, but in exchange for services we will provide, including navigation, environmental protection services, and maybe even insurance services and other services offered by Iran and Oman, necessary costs will be outlined and received. So everything is completely clear in this regard, said Esmail Baghaei, a spokesperson for Irans foreign ministry, Monday.President Trump maintains the strait will be permanently toll-free.The strait is going to be open, toll-free. And it's toll-free beyond the 60 days, Trump told reporters.A spokesperson for Qatars foreign ministry said it was confident the MOU would open the strait.We're hoping that the signing of the MOU will open the door for the negotiations that will help in finding a sustainable, secure position for the Strait of Hormuz, said Majed al-Ansari.RELATED STORY | Trump pitches Iran deal to G7 allies as conflicting accounts raise questions about agreementThe negotiations are also expected to include discussions on Irans nuclear program, and offer economic relief to Iran based on its performance, according to U.S. officials.I think that it's very hard to predict where these go on each of the four or five big issues that are outstanding. So nuclear capability, missiles, support for militias, access to finances and frozen assets, support for terrorist groups going forward. Israel's role in Hezbollah in Lebanon, said Michael OHanlon, the Philip H. Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution.OHanlon said you have to have parties to reach these middle ground areas on some of these questions.On each of those, you can imagine sort of what the compromise might look like, some easier than others. The nuclear thing is more straightforward, because you've got monitoring and you can quantify every dimension of this. The support for terrorist groups a little mushier and harder to know, but you know, you can also just sort of agree to disagree on something like that, or go ahead with an agreement, provided that there are no egregious increases in support for Hamas or Hezbollah, said OHanlon.Trump maintains the deal prevents Iran from developing or purchasing a nuclear weapon, and will lead to the destruction of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. ...read more read less
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