All eyes are on the Texas Gulf Coast, with the potential for the first tropical system of the 2026 Atlantic Tropical Season. The National Hurricane Center said it has been tracking a disturbance for several days that has moved from the Gulf into northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. The NHC add ed, “Most of the guidance suggests that it will move offshore tonight (Tuesday), and winds will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday.” The NHC said that regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards. The hurricane center said model guidance has the storm hugging the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. “The main hazard with these types of systems is largely the flooding from the heavy rainfall,” said NHC Director Michael Brennan. “And we could see potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend.” Tropical storms earn a name when the system has a warm central core, and maximum sustained winds are at least 39 mph. This system would take the name of Arthur. Where is the system? Potential Tropical Cyclone One is located near the Texas Gulf Coast. It is moving northeastward. Where is it headed? This system will continue to strengthen and move along the Texas Gulf Coast. Eventually, it will affect the Louisiana Gulf Coast. By Thursday, it should weaken across northeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. The primary impact of heavy rain The primary weather impact across the Texas Gulf Coast will be the threat of widespread, heavy rainfall and flooding. This area extends into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Some areas could receive up to a foot of rainfall. Thus, numerous Flood Watches are in effect. If you are planning on traveling in this area, please use caution or avoid travel. In fact, more than 50% of flash-flood deaths happen in vehicles driven into floodwaters. Many victims are swept away when cars stall or float in moving water. Always, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN! More impacts: Wind, storm surge, rip currents and tornadoes Although the main threat will be heavy rainfall, other impacts from the storm will include wind, storm surge, rip currents and tornadoes. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within 24 to 36 hours. Storm surge from Port Bolivar, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, could reach 2 to 4 feet. 2026 storm names Tropical storms are named from lists by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The lists of names appear in alphabetical order, alternating male and female. What happens when you run out of names? When the primary list of Atlantic hurricane names is exhausted in a season, a supplemental list of storm names is used. This secondary list runs alphabetically from Adria to Will, allowing for additional storms without causing naming confusion. Weather Quiz weather quiz Aug 4, 2025 Weather Quiz: Peak of Atlantic hurricane season weather quiz Sep 24, 2024 Weather Quiz: Most Atlantic Cat 5 hurricanes? weather quiz Sep 2, 2025 Weather Quiz: Hurricanes and the International Date Line ...read more read less