In 2024, more than half of Baltimore City and County residents (61%) planned to move out of their current neighborhoods within the next three years. A majority of those who expected to move, however, planned to stay within their jurisdiction. BALTIMORE ON THE MOVE Johns Hopkins University ’s 21st Century Cities Initiative published a brief this month titled “Mobility Expectations of Baltimore Residents.” The brief used data from the 2024 Baltimore Area Survey (BAS) to map out the area population’s plans for staying in place; moving; and if moving, to what locations. The report includes residents’ income, homeownership status, and neighborhood satisfaction. The survey was conducted from September to November 2024 and included responses from 1,492 Baltimore area residents. While more than half of City and County residents in the survey expected to move out of their neighborhoods, nearly 40% of those expectant movers planned to relocate to another Maryland jurisdiction. Approximately 29% of those planning to move in the next three years anticipated moving out of state. Overall Mobility Expectations. Screenshot from the 2024 Baltimore Area Survey. As for Baltimore City alone, about 58% expected to stay in the city, 38% said they will stay in their current neighborhood, and 22% thought they would move somewhere else in the city. Conversely, 42% of city residents expected to leave Baltimore, with 27% planning to move to another Maryland location outside the city and 15% planning to leave Maryland entirely. The city’s population declined each year between 2014 and 2023, but Baltimore City saw an increase in population in 2024, the year the survey was conducted. Of Baltimore County’s respondents, 66% planned to stay in the county, with 41% planning to stay in their neighborhoods and 25% expecting to move somewhere else in the county. In contrast, 34% of residents expected to leave the county, with 15% expecting to stay in Maryland and 19% planning to move out of state. Renters appeared to feel less certain about remaining in their neighborhoods for the next three years than homeowners, with one quarter of renters having that expectation versus nearly half of all homeowners. Unsurprisingly, affordability concerns related to income status. Among the lowest income residents, the survey showed 8 in 10 having affordability concerns. As income increased, affordability concerns decreased. At the highest income level, only 3 in 10 voiced affordability concerns. Moving was not automatically an indication of dissatisfaction with one’s neighborhood, however. The survey considered whether people were moving because they wanted to or because they felt “forced” because of affordability concerns or being priced out of the market. Among Baltimore-area residents who wanted to stay in their neighborhood for at least the next three years, renters were highly likely to have affordability issues that would make that impossible, with 78% of renters reporting some level of concern. REAL ESTATE TRENDS Shari Arciaga is a realtor and associate broker with The McIntyre Team of the KW Collective. With 15 years’ experience in real estate, she has worked the entire Greater Baltimore metro area, including Baltimore City and all the counties that surround it. “The buyers I’m working with are more open to the city in the last couple years than they ever have been before, and that’s because they’ve been priced out of the county,” Arciaga told Baltimore Fishbowl in a phone call. “The biggest challenge with buying in the city — and it’s something I’ve tried to work with local leaders on to the limited extent I have — is the city taxes are such that it just literally prices people right over the line into the county.” These might be first-time homebuyers or people preferring Baltimore County schools over Baltimore City’s. Arciaga said that when her buyers are looking in the city, they want neighborhoods with a suburban feel, like Ten Hills, Hunting Ridge, Westgate, and the like. She also noted, however, that she has buyers considering Baltimore City who are looking for the condo life. They want less land, not more; a walkable lifestyle; and are considering high-end condos like the Four Seasons and the Ritz-Carlton. In her experience, Arciaga said, these homeowners are looking to “downsize but not downgrade.” While the BAS looks at data and answers to questions from 2024, Arciaga considered Bright MLS home sales numbers from 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 as well. It’s not a strict comparison, because her chart is based on inventory and sales only. It shows, however, that even since 2024 the city is still in a strong seller’s market (roughly 8 weeks of inventory) and the county is approaching a balanced market (around 4.5 months of inventory). A graph shows months of supply of housing in Baltimore City and Baltimore County. Stats are for the period of Q2 2015 through Q1 2026. Stats for Q2 2026 will become available July 10, 2026. Courtesy of Bright MLS. “These stats are for the areas as a whole,” Arciaga said. “We may see different trends in any specific neighborhood or ZIP code. Real estate trends are best analyzed at a local level (ZIP code or neighborhood). The big takeaway here is that Maryland is still in a seller’s market in general and has been in a seller’s or balanced market since 2013.” She emphasized, however, that she is starting to see a tightening of purse strings. “I’ve seen in my experience an easing back on what they feel able to purchase, or even dropping out of the market altogether,” Arciaga said. “Because the gas prices, and the inflation have driven up interest rates, which has reduced their spending power. That’s a very recent stat, and we have to see over time how that plays out.” LIVE (AND LOVE) BALTIMORE Meghan McCorkell is executive director of Live Baltimore, a nonprofit whose mission is to attract and retain residents to Baltimore City, supporting the growth of the city’s economy and healthy housing market. Live Baltimore conducted its own study on the potential for residential market growth in 2026 that showed the possibility of adding 20,000 households over the next five years. “Baltimore City’s housing market continues to be the most affordable in the region,” McCorkell told Baltimore Fishbowl in an email. “Live Baltimore’s Residential Market Potential study finds that more than 39,000 people will consider moving within or to the city each year over the next five years and that new or renovated housing could bring 20,000 new households to Baltimore during that time. That demand is coming not only from within Maryland but increasingly from out of state, especially the DC region.” “These trends are reflected in the interest we are seeing on the ground — from more than 1,200 applications this year for the Buy Back the Block program to more than 450 prospective homebuyers attending Live Baltimore’s recent Trolley Tour,” McCorkell continued. “Taken together with continued household growth and the Mayor’s ongoing work to strengthen neighborhoods and address economic concerns, the data show that Baltimore’s opportunity for growth is real and reaching every part of the city.” Live Baltimore Spring 2026 Trolley Tour. Photo via Live Baltimore Facebook page. ...read more read less