When Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Associate Dean and Director Natalie Gochnour assessed economic trends in the Wasatch Back and what she called “the new Utah” on Monday, she did not paint a pretty picture. “Our world’s on fire,” Gochnour began. “I’m just going to be really blun tly honest and share with you what I’m seeing.” Gochnour spoke to a crowded ballroom of attendees of the Wasatch Back Economic Summit, which aimed to provide insight to Utah’s economy through discussions centered around counties in the Wasatch Back.  There is a light at the end of the tunnel, Gochnour said. But right now, Utah is struggling economically along with the rest of the country. That’s due to inflation, job availability and growth, oil and gas prices and more.  “Inflation has pushed upward, and it’s nowhere near where the (Federal Reserve) wants it to be,” Gochnour said. “The real challenge to the Federal Reserve is that you’ve got employment down and inflation up. That’s unusual.” It’s what’s called “stagflation,” Gochnour said. Normally, when there’s a “hyped-up” economy, there’s job growth along with price growth.  But that’s not the case in Utah or along the Wasatch Back. In Wasatch County, unemployment is at about 3.3% as of February. Summit County is seeing an unemployment rate of 2.8% at the same time, according to reporting by the Federal Reserve.  Phil Dean, chief economist and research director at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, said that economists are seeing a shift.  “I think it’s becoming even more what’s called a K-shaped economy,” Dean said.  That occurs when various parts of the economy in Utah or the United States grow and decline at different rates. That creates an ever-widening gap between upper and lower to middle classes.  Natalie Gochnour of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute said Utah is one of the best places to live in the United States for those seeking the “American Dream.” Credit: Photo courtesy of Carla Boecklin /Park City Chamber of Commerce “For a while, kind of everybody was growing at the same pace,” Dean said. “It’s continuing to grow, but it’s more coming from high-income households, upper-middle-income households, and you’re definitely seeing a lot more pressure on low-income households.” Dean said while some parts of the economy might be “doing better,” that doesn’t mean everybody in the United States economy is doing as well.  Gochnour echoed that sentiment and added that there are further pressures on Utahns, like inflation and the price of oil and gas. If a $40 increase per barrel of oil sticks, that creates a domino effect. Gasoline prices rise by about $1 per gallon, then consumers pay an additional $120 billion for gas annually. Then households pay $1,000 more on top of that for energy.  Then, there’s the “r word,” as Gochnour called it: Recession.  “If you get close to 50% probability, it happens,” Gochnour said.  Moody’s Analytics is measuring at 40% probability right now.  “I wanted to just be honest with you about the pressures that the Utah economy, the U.S. economy are feeling as you in the Wasatch Back make decisions about your companies, your investments, your employees and where we’re headed,” Gochnour said.  As Gochnour promised, she spoke about the light at the end of the tunnel for the Wasatch Back and Utah. She said analysts and economists at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute call it the “magnificent seven.” Utah boasts seven major accomplishments, Gochnour said: economic diversity, high household income and low poverty, upward mobility, widespread prosperity, a well-trained and educated workforce, a fast-growing population and youthfulness and social cohesion.  “There’s actually good news ahead,” Gochnour said. “There’s almost no better place to be in the entire country than in Utah.” Gouchnour said Utah is rapidly changing and as that change occurs, it transforms into a different state.  “Our challenge is: How do we grow and change and still maintain everything that makes us special?” Gouchnour said.  Wasatch County specifically, Gouchnour said, is projected to be the state’s fastest-growing county over the next four decades. The U.S. Census Bureau reported at the start of the year that Wasatch County’s population is at just under 39,000 residents.  The county is also on the cusp of transitioning from a fourth-class county to a third-class county, which requires a population of 40,000 residents or more, according to Wasatch County Manager Dustin Grabau. Becoming a third-class county means that Wasatch County would make changes to financial reporting, how the county tracks municipal services, and would be granted the option of requiring certain types of affordable housing.  “This state has the highest levels of the ‘American Dream,’ where you grow up with this socioeconomic opportunity and you rise to a higher level,” Gouchnour said.  Gouchnour ended on a note of positivity: There is hope for the future. Despite the country and Utah’s current economic status.  “The world’s on fire. It’s a tough time. People are divided. Our country’s divided, our state’s divided,” Gouchnour said. “We have to figure out how to unify, how to dignify, how to do better as a society, and I’m a believer that this state is a state that will lead in that effort.” The post A ‘new Utah’ takes shape: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute director shows a world ‘on fire’ appeared first on Park Record. ...read more read less