May 11, 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: A few scattered showers may develop along the Beartooth foothills Monday evening as a weak weather system brushes the southern edge of our area. There's only a 20% chance of light precipitation in the mountains, with an even smaller chance of thunder. These isolated storms won't do much to ease the fire danger.Tuesday brings slightly cooler temperatures, though we're still talking about above-normal readings in the 70s to 80 degrees. The ridge of high pressure begins building over the region, maintaining dry conditions through Wednesday afternoon. Breezy northwest winds continue along the Dakota border with gusts of 15 to 30 mph.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: The peak of our heat wave as a strong ridge of high pressure moves directly over Montana on Wednesday. Temperatures will soar 15 to 30 degrees above normal, with highs reaching the 80s to low 90s across the region. This will likely be the warmest weather of the year so far, making hydration and heat precautions essential.The fire weather story becomes more concerning Wednesday as southerly winds gust into the 20s to 40 mph range. The mountain foothills and eastern plains will see the strongest gusts. Models are hinting at the possibility of dry thunderstorms developing Wednesday afternoon and evening as an approaching weather system creates instability. These storms could produce strong, erratic wind gusts without beneficial rainfall, creating elevated fire concerns even in areas still experiencing spring green-up.Thursday's forecast carries significant uncertainty. A strong weather system may bring widespread gusty to strong westerly winds across the entire area. Wind gusts could reach 40 to 55 mph, with the most intense winds hitting the plains and foothills west of Billings.There's only a 10% to 40% chance of measurable precipitation, meaning many locations will miss out on the moisture while still dealing with the dangerous winds. This combination of strong winds, continued warmth, and dry conditions could create another day of elevated fire danger. ...read more read less
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