The multifamily market in Baton Rouge is settling into a more normalized phase after several years of volatility, even as a surge of new supply and lingering distressed properties continue to reshape conditions across the region. Presenting at the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors’ 2026 Trends seminar on Thursday, Craig Davenport of Cooke, Moore, Davenport Associates described the market as entering a period of “stabilization,” with fundamentals aligning more closely with historical norms. “Typically, stabilized markets see 1-3% rent growth and a vacancy rate in the 5-7% range,” Davenport said. That’s essentially where Baton Rouge stands today. Data compiled for the seminar shows rents rose 1.5% year over year to about $1.34 per square foot, while vacancy fell to 6.53% from 7.46%. That modest rent growth marks a sharp slowdown from the double-digit growth seen in 2021 and 2022. The shift is being driven largely by supply. A historically large number of units delivered in 2024 and 2025—combined with more than 1,100 units currently under construction—has increased competition and pushed some submarkets into softer territory. “As we build more units, the rents have kind of leveled off,” Davenport said. Complicating the outlook is a significant layer of distressed inventory. Thousands of units tied to foreclosed or underperforming properties remain offline or in disrepair. When those units are factored in, the effective vacancy rate could approach 12.5%. Many of those properties are now being acquired at steep discounts and repositioned by new owners, a trend expected to continue through 2026. At the same time, development patterns are shifting. While much of the past decade’s construction focused on high-end, Class A product, a growing share of recent deliveries has been concentrated in affordable and mixed-income housing. Nearly 1,000 such units came online in 2025 alone. Demand fundamentals remain relatively solid, supported by a stable local economy and continued job growth. The Baton Rouge metro has largely recovered the jobs it lost during the pandemic, with employment up 1.5% year over year and unemployment hovering near 3.9%. That job growth is expected to support continued absorption of new units, particularly as population growth follows. Sales activity, meanwhile, was strong, with roughly $581 million in multifamily transactions in 2025, driven in large part by student housing deals. Looking ahead, Davenport expects relatively steady conditions, with rents projected to grow between 1% and 3% and vacancy holding within a typical range. The biggest change may come from a slowing development pipeline. “I think we’re going to see a slowdown in construction over the next two to three years,” Davenport said. ...read more read less