SAN ANTONIO, TX - OCTOBER 30: Dylan Harper #2, Victor Wembanyama #1 and Stephon Castle #5 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on during the game against the Miami Heat on October 30, 2025 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by d ownloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images Many expected the Spurs to be good, but no one saw them becoming legitimate title contenders. That’s exactly where San Antonio finds themself with just a handful of games left in the season. Everything that could have gone right, has gone right, and at this point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them crowned champs in June. So, how did we get here? As with everything Spurs-related, it starts with the Alien. Wemby’s all-time trajectory In a vacuum, elite offense is more impactful than elite defense. Offenses dictate what’s happening on the court, and the defense can only react accordingly. It’s not a coincidence that a list of the best players in the world generally leans toward potent scorers/playmakers, and for 99.9% of players, it’s inaccurate to say that the two sides of the court hold equal importance. Like everything in his life, though, Wemby is that lone 0.1%. He might be the only player in NBA history who forces opponents to game plan for his defense, and that side of the court truly represents half the game for him — which might still be underselling it. With Wemby on the court this season, the Spurs have an astonishing 104.5 defensive rating, which is 2.5 points better than the historically great Thunder. His blocks are actually down to “just” 3.1 this year compared to his rookie (3.6) and sophomore seasons (3.8), but that’s entirely due to opponents finally realizing that it’s futile to try shooting over his xenomorph-sized arms. During his minutes, teams are attempting just 26.7% of their shots within 4 feet of the basket, which would be the second-lowest percentage league-wide, only behind Boston at 24.7%. More importantly, opponents are shooting just 59.8% at the rim with Wemby on the floor, which would be the only sub-60% mark in the league in comparison to team-wide stats. He’s truly a one-man defense. In the play below, Wemby’s presence spooked two Pacers from shooting before stuffing Siakam. Wemby will probably go down as the most dominant defensive player ever when his career is over. It’s damn near impossible to get a shot off when he’s guarding you. pic.twitter.com/invXkPbOru— BGN Hoops (@BGNHoops) March 22, 2026 What makes Wemby great isn’t just his length. Rather, it’s his combination of length, agility, and motor that truly makes him one of one. Wemby’s ability to move like a wing gives him the greatest margin for error in league history, and his desire to block every shot means that, well, every possible shot will be blocked. Cette possession défensive de Wemby sur Darius Garland…😵‍💫🔒pic.twitter.com/vIdTT0e2gD— 50 Nuances 🇺🇸🏀 (@50NuancesDeNBA) March 17, 2026 For players not named Wemby, the total potential value provided on offense and defense might lean 60/40 towards offense. However, Wemby breaks that scale and provides a value of 60 on defense alone, when everyone else is maxed at 40. It’s truly akin to a video game where you can exceed the health limits, especially considering that his offense is starting to reach elite levels too. Compared to his first two seasons, Wemby’s offensive game hasn’t taken a massive leap in any one area: he didn’t come into the year with an unstoppable skyhook or start shooting 45% from deep. Rather, it’s his decision-making, processing speed, and strength that have improved, and he’s combined the friendlier shot diet from his rookie year with the efficiency jump from his sophomore campaign. Wemby’s back to attempting 37% of his shots around the basket and just 29% from deep (near identical with his first year) while converting on 74% and 35% of those attempts (similar to his second year). Yet, his true shooting is up to 61.6% this year — the first time he’s been above league-average in efficiency among centres. Wemby has prioritized being a play finisher instead of a creator, highlighted by a career-high 2.63 dunks per game and a career-low in three-point rate. As a result, he’s averaging by far the most points per 36 minutes of his young career with 29.8, up from 26.3 last year. Even so, Wemby’s greatest offensive weapon is the open shots he creates for his teammates. With the Alien on the court, San Antonio has a 121.6 offensive rating — a number only eclipsed by Denver this year. The Spurs’ shot chart in his minutes is an analytics nerd’s dream: they attempt 36.1% of their shots at the rim (87th percentile) and 14% from corner threes (98th). That latter number is a full percentage more than the #1 team in generating corner threes this year and is actually the highest number in NBA history. The Spurs are also converting on 40.7% of those attempts, which is 2% above the league average. I’d usually consider that to be unsustainable since opposing teams usually have little control over opponent three-point percentages, but Wemby creates such open looks that San Antonio’s conversion rate might actually have staying power. Look at how insane Wemby’s gravity is nowHe touched the ball and literally three defenders collapse onto himBut his processing time is so quick now that he catches it with one handed and instantly rifles it out, leaving the defense unbalanced and susceptible to some swings pic.twitter.com/79qlmcjJo3— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) March 26, 2026 Wemby’s gravity extends out to three as well. He’s currently making a sub-par 34.8% from deep, but his ability to get hot and hit a flurry of triples forces opposing big men to guard him on the perimeter, opening up driving lanes for others. That’s a match made in heaven for the Spurs’ three-headed backcourt monster, as Castle, Fox, and Harper are all excellent slashers. For example, Wemby’s gravity forces Bam to guard on the perimeter in the clip below, allowing Harper to attack and finish over a smaller defender. pic.twitter.com/FlKpb84jGl— Bill Huan (@bill_huan) April 2, 2026 The Spurs’ +17.1 net rating with Wemby on the court is the highest number amongst all players this season, proving that he’s arguably the best player in the world already. Throughout league history, only a handful of players were considered to be in that realm during their age-22 seasons: LeBron, Kareem, Magic, Shaq, Duncan, Oscar, and Jordan. Wemby is well on his way to joining that pantheon of greats, but he’ll need to go through the crucible of the playoffs to truly establish himself as the top dog. Still, given what we’ve seen so far, no one should be surprised if he’s the undisputed #1 in a few months. Castle’s stunning leap I was extremely down on Castle last season. His passing was just meh for a guard, and the less said about his shooting and efficiency, the better. I viewed him as more of a Marcus Smart trick or treat type player rather than one destined for stardom.  Well, Castle’s made me eat crow this year, and I couldn’t be happier. He’s now up to 57.4% true shooting (from 52.2), right around the league average for guards. Castle’s 13 drives per game rank 20th league-wide, and he’s scoring on a robust 48% on those attempts. The sophomore is among the very best at pressuring the rim, with 44% of his shots coming within 4 feet of the basket (93rd percentile among guards). He still shoots an average percentage from there (63%) and most areas of the court, but that’s still a huge improvement from last year, and Castle’s percentages have been aided by the fact that he attempts so many shots in the most efficient area of the court.  More importantly, the way Castle scores has changed. His jump in efficiency is mostly attributed to a plethora of moves he’s refined, and Castle is much better at utilizing his functional athleticism now. He’s one of the very best in the league at using explosiveness, strength, and power to get to the rim and finish through contact if needed. Castle’s exceptional body control allows him to change speeds and directions in an instant, with most defenders unable to react and recover quickly enough to keep up.  pic.twitter.com/dg2nCWUrQM— Bill Huan (@bill_huan) March 31, 2026 Even with his scoring improvements, the biggest leap Castle’s made this year has been his playmaking. He went from a 23% assist percentage last year (74th percentile) to 33.9% now (99th), resulting in him averaging 7.3 assists per game — a top 10 mark league-wide. Castle has learned how to read defenses and patiently wait for opponents to commit before finding an opening, and he utilizes his rim pressure to kick out to open shooters.  pic.twitter.com/uK6REHp8t1— Bill Huan (@bill_huan) April 1, 2026 Castle is a great lob thrower, too. He’s not just dining off of Wemby, either: Kornet has benefited just as much from his passes.  pic.twitter.com/FgGvlV0imi— Bill Huan (@bill_huan) March 30, 2026 Castle is one of the league’s most efficient passers as well. He’s top 10 in points created from assists (19.3) and top 15 in potential assists, but outside the top 30 in passes made per game. In other words, the numbers imply that Castle might be capable of becoming more of a heliocentric guard if given the opportunity, but the one area that holds him back is his turnover rate: he has a 2.25 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and is also turning the ball over on 15.9% of all individual possessions (7th percentile). On top of that, Castle is still a questionable shooter at best. He’s making 32.3% of his triples this year (up from 28.5% last year), and while he made over 40% of them in March, the overall body of work suggests that he’s still a below-average shooter — especially for a guard. Still, his combination of scoring, passing, and All-defense level of two-way ability makes Castle a top-40, borderline All-Star now, and I already consider him the second-best player on the Spurs with the potential to make an All-NBA team in the near future. Whether or not Castle reaches those heights and proves himself capable as a lead ballhandler remains to be seen, but it might be a moot point considering that San Antonio has an even better guard prospect lying in wait. The X-Factor: A rookie? The basketball gods have a chosen son, and it’s the Spurs. To luck into Wemby after a tanking season is one thing, but getting the second pick with the 8th-best odds in a loaded draft is a whole new level of favoritism. Harper has come as advertised. He was one of the league’s craftiest drivers and finishers from day one, and has only improved since. Many of his underlying numbers are comparable, if not better, than Castle’s this season, with both being drive-first guards with questionable shooting. Harper is attempting 50% of his shots at the rim (98th percentile for a guard) and making 63% of those attempts (50th), while being lethal in all other areas inside the arc. The rookie is converting on a mind-blowing 56.5% of his twos, which ranks in the 86th percentile for his position. Harper’s 8.4 drives per game is already above average league-wide, and that number would easily be in the top 20 if he played starter minutes. More impressively, his 55.3% conversion rate on such possessions is 12th league-wide among all players with 500 or more drives this year. Looking at the tape, it’s easy to see why. Harper has some of the best footwork in the league, and he’s able to get past defenders even after picking up his dribble — very Manu and Hakeem-esque. Rookies aren't supposed to be moving like this 😤 pic.twitter.com/9U1dqFmc2F— ALL NBA Podcast (@ALLCITY_NBA) March 31, 2026 Another skill that separates Harper is his decision-making and ball-handling. The rookie’s 10.5% turnover rate is in the 77th percentile for all guards, and he has a robust 2.8 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio that’s well ahead of players such as Cade, Harden, and Shai in their first few years in the league. Like Castle, though, Harper’s biggest weakness is his inconsistent long-range shooting. He’s made just 32.1% of his triples this year, and while that number was 53.7% in March, Harper’s history suggests that his recent form is an unsustainable hot stretch. Even if his jumper never becomes a weapon, I would still bet on Harper becoming an All-NBA player through his combination of elite two-point efficiency, reliable playmaking, and solid defense. He’s already good enough to play a crucial role in a potential Spurs run, and Harper could be the team’s second-best player as soon as next season. If the jumper does develop, he seems like a virtual lock to be a top-15 player in the league for years to come. Fox and the role players Fox: Fox is the more mature version of Castle and Harper in many ways. He’s also top-30 in drives per game (12) and is tied with Harper in field goal percentage on drives (55.3%), and they’re ranked first and second, respectively, in drive FG% since January 1st. The Spurs’ depth has allowed Fox to scale back, as his 27.1% usage is the second-lowest rate of his career. Inversely, that has helped him record the second-highest true shooting percentage of his career (58.1%), although his 3-point shooting remains hit or miss (33.7%). Still, Fox is a vital part of this team even with the emergence of Harper and Castle, as he brings a stable presence and is the Spurs’ go-to perimeter option in crunch time. He could be moved in the next few years to make room for Harper, but for now, Fox remains a crucial piece who’s still playing at an All-Star level. The wing shooters: Vassell, Champagnie, Barnes, and Johnson are the support pieces that elevate San Antonio’s ceiling. The four of them have all bought into their roles, and the spacing they provide makes life easy for Wemby and the guards on drives. They’re making a combined 38.5% from deep on 20.9 attempts a game, helping mitigate some of the shooting concerns of the guards. All four wings are also adequate defenders with some off-the-dribble game, which means that the Spurs don’t have a single liability on either end of the court. Kornet: One of the more underappreciated players this season, Kornet has been vital in keeping the Spurs competitive in the non-Wemby minutes. Remember, the Alien is averaging 29 minutes per game and has logged just 1784 total minutes — less than 50% of the team’s total minutes this year. With Kornet on and Wemby off, the Spurs still have a solid 114.4 defensive rating (64th percentile) and a +3.6 net rating with a 118.0 offense. He’s the main reason why San Antonio can afford to save Wemby for the playoffs, and will continue to play a vital role moving forward. Conclusion The Spurs are a bonafide title contender, full stop. Wemby is an all-time defense unto himself, and the offense has been elite, too. The fit between the three guards has also been more seamless than expected due to the combination of their rim pressure with the spacing provided by Wemby in the middle and the wings in the corners. Still, San Antonio’s lack of playoff experience is a reasonable concern, along with the absence of an elite #2 option. Recent champions all had a second All-NBA-calibre player on the roster, and while Castle and Fox (and perhaps Harper) can reach those heights on any given night, none of them have consistently played at that level this year. For now, I’d consider the Spurs to be beneath OKC in the contender tiers, but they’re the clear #2 and the biggest threat to the defending champs. San Antonio reminds me more of the 2024 one-seed Thunder that lost in the second round than the 2025 champs, but with Wemby on their side, there is no ceiling high enough for this team. The Spurs are fated to win a title in the near future. The only question that remains is when. This week, please check out Mateo’s article on Harper’s rookie season! He does a great job of diving even deeper into the numbers and shows just why we’re all so high on Harper’s potential. Thanks for reading! All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats. ...read more read less