It’s crunch time in the World Baseball Classic. An 8-6 loss to Italy on Tuesday night stripped the United States of any control over their own fate in Pool B. Now they wait. And the man they’re waiting on is the longest-tenured Phillie in the game. Aaron Nola takes the ball for Italy on We dnesday. The 33-year-old right-hander could either keep the Americans alive or send them home — depending entirely on how he pitches and how many runs cross the plate. Diving into the math Italy and Mexico close out Pool B on Wednesday night at 7 p.m. ET on FS1. The United States won’t play. They finished 3-1 and can do nothing but watch. If Italy wins, the Americans advance in second place. If Mexico wins, the standings knot up at 3-1 across three teams and tiebreakers kick in. The WBC settles three-way ties using a quotient, runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded, in head-to-head games between the tied clubs. Through Tuesday, the United States holds the best figure at 0.2037, ahead of Mexico at 0.2083 and Italy at 0.2222. What that means practically: the Americans can survive a Mexico win, but only if enough runs score. A high-scoring Mexico victory likely keeps the USA’s quotient advantage intact. A tight, low-run game flips the math and ends their tournament. Regardless, if Mexico scores five runs in the game, win or lose, USA moves on to the semifinals. That’s what makes Nola’s outing so loaded. A dominant performance shuts down Mexico’s offense, keeps Italy in it and likely sends the Americans through. A short outing with crooked numbers on the board could also help USA move on — but only if the run total gets there. How are the Phils performing? This is his first start of the WBC, but Nola has made two outings this spring for the Phillies. He’s totaled five innings, one run allowed and six strikeouts. His fastball has been sitting around 94 mph, an encouraging sign for a Philadelphia rotation that needs him stretched out and healthy, with Opening Day less than two weeks away. He isn’t the only Phillie with something at stake Wednesday. Philadelphia’s No. 7 prospect Dante Nori has quietly had a strong Classic, going 5-for-10 with two home runs. For a prospect trying to make noise before spring training concludes, the timing couldn’t be better. Elsewhere among the Phillies’ WBC contingent, Kyle Schwarber has been one of the Americans’ most consistent performers, posting a 1.063 OPS. Bryce Harper has struggled to find the same rhythm — five strikeouts in the tournament and out of the starting lineup Tuesday, though he had hits in each of his first three appearances. Brad Keller made his second appearance of the tournament on Tuesday. He made a costly throwing error at second base and allowed two unearned runs across two-thirds of an inning against Italy. The story of Tuesday night centered on the USA skipper. Manager Mark DeRosa drew criticism after suggesting the Americans had already punched their ticket to the semifinals before Tuesday’s game was played. Now the team that entered the Classic as heavy favorites to win the whole thing is watching a Phillies pitcher decide their fate. ...read more read less