Gasoline prices in San Diego and across Southern California have been steadily increasing in recent weeks as California refineries make their annual switch to the state’s more expensive summer-blended gas. But the war in Iran added another jolt to the fuel market. The average price of a gallon of regular in the San Diego area jumped 4 cents on Tuesday, rising to $4.737, according to AAA. The average price for diesel fuel, which is used in trucking and shipping, leaped 5 cents, rising to $5.052 a gallon. “All these things are floating around,” said Marie Montgomery, spokesperson for the Auto Club of Southern California. “Things can be very unpredictable and until we know for sure if this is a short-term or long-term conflict, it’s going to obviously have impact worldwide.” The average price in the U.S. took an even steeper climb on Tuesday, going up 11 cents from the previous day to $3.109 per gallon. The U.S. and Israel on Saturday launched attacks against Iranian government, military and nuclear targets that killed senior leaders in Iran, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. President Donald Trump on Monday said fighting would continue until Iranian forces no longer pose a threat. “Right from the beginning we projected four to five weeks,” Trump said at the White House, “but we have the capability to go far longer than that.” Iran has ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to attack any tankers carrying crude oil or natural gas attempting to go through the strait, where about 20% of the world’s petroleum products typically pass through. The clampdown has led to a surge in oil futures contracts. Brent crude — the benchmark price for the global market — has increased by more than $10 per barrel since Saturday’s airstrikes, with fears that it could reach $100 per barrel if the conflict is not resolved quickly. Brent futures closed the formal trading day Tuesday at $81.40 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate — the benchmark price for U.S. oil futures — hovered around $67 before the war. WTI futures closed Tuesday at $74.56 a barrel. The price of crude oil directly impacts the price of gasoline. The rule of thumb from fuel experts says an increase of $10 per barrel equates to a rise of around 25 cents per gallon on the price at the pump. David Hackett, president of Stillwater Associates, a transportation energy consulting company in Irvine, expects prices to keep rising until ships resume normal activity in the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s the uncertainty about exactly what’s going to happen that raises prices,” he said. “It always does.” Some 63.5% of oil in California refineries in 2024 came from foreign sources, according to the California Energy Commission. And the largest single source of foreign oil was delivered from Iraq. But at least for now, Hackett said, motorists should not worry about fuel supplies. “Gasoline inventories in California are, for this time of year, at pretty high levels,” Hackett said. “There’s plenty of gas in the tank in California.” Plus, the PBF Energy refinery in the Northern California city of Martinez that has seen its production reduced by about half since a fire broke out at the facility last year is expected to wrap up maintenance efforts soon. That will help boost gasoline stockpiles. If the fighting in Iran “goes on for longer than a week, prices will continue to go up as people are scrambling to find alternative supplies,” Hackett said, with California refiners perhaps casting an eye at South America and Canada. “But the competition for those barrels is going to increase, so the prices will go up.” Even before the strikes on Iran, prices in California had been steadily climbing for more than a month. Starting in January and February, refiners start transitioning to the state’s unique summer blend of fuel that helps reduce smog but is more expensive than the winter formula. In San Diego, for example, the average price on Jan. 20, according to AAA, was $4.389 and had risen to $4.678 on Friday, the day before the war started. Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday that energy officials in his administration “had extensive conversations over the weekend, gaming out worst-case scenarios” regarding the impacts of the war in Iran on fuel prices. Newsom, whose name has been raised as a presidential candidate in 2028, also took some shots at the White House. “Energy prices are up across the globe,” Newsom told reporters. “Oil prices are up, gas prices are going up. Every $10 increase in a barrel is roughly 24 cents per gallon that you’ll be paying more because of Trump’s war.” The Western States Petroleum Association, an industry trade group, responded on social media, saying, “California is vulnerable to global events like these because leaders have chosen policies that drive CA refining and production out instead of depending on in-state energy.” Statewide, the average price for a gallon of regular in California on Tuesday came to $4.674, the highest of any state, and $1.565 more than the U.S. average, according to AAA. The outlook for the gasoline market in California has been a growing concern. Phillips 66 recently completed the closure of its twin refinery in the Los Angeles area and Valero plans to shut down its 145,000-barrel-per-day refinery in the Northern California city of Benicia by the end of April. The Valero and Phillips 66 facilities combine to account for about 18% of the state’s crude oil capacity. Fuel shipped from foreign countries can help pick up the slack, but the shuttering of the two refineries may leave the state more vulnerable to price spikes. At a Senate committee hearing last month in Sacramento, California Energy Commission vice chair Siva Gunda said the loss of refining capacity in the state will be met largely by imports but added, “as we go down, this is not going to be a smooth transition.” ...read more read less