Feb 18, 2026
(KTLA) -- A new frontrunner has emerged in California's wide-open race for governor. Conservative commentator Steve Hilton now leads the field with 17%, followed by Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, who are tied at 14%, according to an Emerson Colle ge Polling/Inside California Politics survey of 1,000 likely voters released Wednesday. Hilton is a former director of strategy for British Prime Minister David Cameron and a current Fox News contributor. He took in roughly $4.1 million in donations in the second half of 2025, according to campaign finance reports cited by CalMatters. Bianco had a one point lead over Hilton and Swalwell in early December. Former Rep. Katie Porter has 10% support in the latest poll and billionaire Tom Steyer has 9% - both are Democrats. Importantly, 21% of respondents said they remain undecided. Pollsters noted that since December, support for Hilton and Steyer rose five points, support for Swalwell increased two points and support for Porter dipped by one point. An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey found Steve Hilton leading with 17% in February 2026. (KTLA) “The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton at 38% and Chad Bianco at 37%, while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voters at 22%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. California's primary is set for June 2. The two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the November general election to determine who will succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate,” Kimball said. “Twenty-three percent support Eric Swalwell, 14% support Porter, 12% support Steyer and 22% remain undecided.” From left, Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Matt Mahan, Tom Steyer, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee stand on the stage during the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Laure Andrillon) Newsom’s approval rating could be influencing the race. The survey found 44% approve of his job performance, while 45% disapprove. That represents a three-point drop in approval and a six-point rise in disapproval since the December Emerson/Inside California Politics poll. Other poll results: • A majority of voters at 53% say they have considered leaving California because of the state’s cost of living.• Asked to identify the biggest strain on their household budgets, 28% cited housing, 21% utilities and 17% groceries.• On immigration policy, 41% prefer the Biden administration’s approach, 38% favor Trump’s and 21% prefer neither. The survey was conducted Feb. 13-14 and carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points. ...read more read less
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