Since the snowpack in Colorado has fallen to the lowest level in modern record-keeping, the chances of catching back up are slim. Across the state, snowpack, a measure of the water in the snow, is 55% of average, the lowest going back to the 1980s, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service. At this point, the chances of getting caught up to average are low, said Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center.  “We have less than a 10% chance of getting back to normal,” he said.   Currently the state’s snowpack is below what it had at this time in 2002, an extreme drought year, often used as a benchmark for bad conditions. The state ended the winter in 2002 with 53% of average snowpack, state climate records show.  While it is unlikely the state will see an average amount of snow by the end of the season, the state has an 80% chance of beating 2002, he said.  “There is still plenty of hope that this season will pan out better than 2002,” he said. The 2002 drought was particularly bad for the state, because it was the third dry year in a row and dropped reservoirs dramatically. Lake Pueblo dropped 53 feet in 2002 compared to the year prior, the Pueblo Chieftain reported at the time.  The back line denotes current snowpack levels across Colorado. Snowpack measures the water content in snow. The state’s water reserves are in better shape now by comparison.  Colorado Springs Utilities’ reservoirs have enough water to serve customers for three years, spokeswoman Jennifer Jordan said.  “If snowpack remains low, we can rely on the water we have in storage to help see us through a potentially hot, dry summer — it’s one reason our reservoirs are so critical to our water system,” she said.  At the current reservoir levels, Utilities officials don’t anticipate declaring a water shortage, triggering water-use restrictions beyond Utilities’ regular summer limits.  A wet summer reduced demands on the city’s reservoir system, with customers using 1.6 billion fewer gallons of water in 2025 compared to 2024, Utilities data shows.  But a dry fall and a warm and dry winter followed the summer rains and left some local landscapes with long, dry grass and distressed trees raising the risk of fire, said Terry Stokka, a Black Forest resident and longtime volunteer weather spotter.  The Black Forest has only received about 20 inches of snow so far this season, well below average, he said. By the end of January, Black Forest should have received about 40 inches.  He is hoping to see a lot more snow to help ensure a large number of ponderosa pines in the Black Forest don’t fall victim to the pine beetles that are already killing trees in the area, he said.  “We need to get 60-80 inches of snow between now and June if we are going to hope to slow the beetles and the drought and the fire danger,” he said. A 2013 fire in Black Forest burned about 500 homes.  NOAA’s three-month outlook for Colorado through April forecasts above average temperatures and below-average precipitation for southern portions of the state.   The current La Niña weather pattern that typically brings in the warmer and drier conditions to the southern portion of the state is waning, but at least some impacts will last through April, said Johnna Infanti, a meteologist with NOAA’s climate prediction center. In the short term, while a weekend winter storm hit Colorado on Friday, the cold storm was not carrying much moisture and there is not a significant event on the horizon.  “It’s likely that our snowpack deficits will get worse before they get better, if they get better,” Goble said. ...read more read less