Slot Machine: Giants loss to Raiders could seal No. 1 NFL Draft pick
Dec 28, 2025
Anyone who has ever been to Las Vegas has lost in Las Vegas. But most casino losers don’t walk away with the grand prize as a reward.
That’s what the Giants (2-13) will do on Sunday if they fall to the Raiders (2-13) at Allegiant Stadium just off the Vegas strip.
A loss will put the Giants in th
e drivers’ seat for the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, since the Raiders are their primary competition for that slot.
Not that the Giants’ players care. They have their own motivations, like trying to snap a nine-game losing streak and improving their stats against one of the NFL’s worst teams.
“I really don’t think we talk about that part too much, about the draft positioning and wanting a certain pick or anything like that,” wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson said. “I think we just want to go out there and play our best football and go out there and get a win.”
But there isn’t much else left about this Giants season that’s of any interest.
There’s only the head coaching search, the job security of GM Joe Schoen, the ongoing evaluation of quarterback Jaxson Dart and the draft pick that New York will land for being one of the worst teams in the NFL — again.
The majority of the Giants’ disgusted fan base wants their team to lose this game. The higher the pick the Giants land, the better the player they can pick or the greater the assets they can acquire in a trade back this spring.
Inside the building, there are several reasons to want a win despite the draft pick that a loss could earn them.
The Giants, who are 0-8 on the road this season, are one loss away from recording their first winless season on the road since 1976, when they went 0-7 on the road, per Elias Sports Bureau.
The Giants have lost a franchise record 13 straight road games dating back to a 29-20 win in Seattle on Oct. 6, 2024, of last season. So a loss to the Raiders would extend that unthinkable streak to 14.
Losing to the Raiders also would give the Giants 10 straight losses overall, which would tie the franchise record that Brian Daboll and Schoen just set last year from Oct. 13 through Dec. 22, 2024.
Interim head coach Mike Kafka (0-5) is still looking for his first win running the Giants, too. And although the Dallas Cowboys may be sitting players for the Week 18 season finale at MetLife Stadium, this trip to face the Raiders absolutely feels like Kafka’s best and possibly only chance to get that win.
What the rest of the league will be watching, though, is how this Giants-Raiders result impacts the NFL Draft order.
It’s basically a three-team race for the No. 1 overall pick between the Giants, Raiders and Cleveland Browns.
The Raiders have a 37.3% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, per ESPN Analytics. The Giants are close behind, with a 36.1% chance of picking first. And the Browns have a 24.4% probability of landing the No. 1 pick.
The Jets (2.2%) are on the outside looking in.
So in a full circle moment, Raiders quarterback Geno Smith — whose lone 2017 Giants start at quarterback in place of a benched Eli Manning prompted the firings of Jerry Reese and Ben McAdoo — will either hand New York the top pick in the draft or put his old franchise in the history books for more ineptitude.
Raiders defensive coordinator Pat Graham, the Giants’ DC under former head coach Joe Judge, will impact the perception of Dart and the fate of his former employer with how his side of the ball fares against Kafka’s offense.
And Schoen will either have a top draft pick or a long-awaited win to include in his sales pitch to ownership come the New Year.
Those are high stakes. Appropriate that it’s going down in Vegas.
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