Dec 26, 2025
Warm temperatures continue Friday thanks to persistent downslope flow. While still unseasonably mild, the air mass wont be quite as warm as Thursday. Highs will reach the 50s to near 60F, though record highs for December 26 rema in a bit higher and will be tough to break.Moist southwest flow stays locked in across the region, keeping periods of accumulating mountain snow going through Saturdayespecially on southwest- and west-facing slopes of the Beartooth and Absaroka ranges. Another 1018 inches of snow is likely, with about a 60% chance of a foot or more, increasing avalanche concerns around Cooke City. Lower elevations remain mostly dry tonight, with only a slight chance of a brief, insignificant shower.Ahead of Saturdays approaching system, winds will increase across the foothills and adjacent plains. Pressure gradients over the Paradise Valley and foothills climb toward 11 mb today, with 700-mb winds in the 3545 kt range. While soundings suggest occasional mixing could produce gusts over 50 mph at gap locations like Livingston and Nye (around an 85% chance), the unusually warm air mass is not ideal for strong gap flow, so no wind highlights are planned at this time. A subtle eastward shift of the lee-side surface trough will bring gusts of 3545 mph along the US-191 corridor from Big Timber through Harlowton late today and possibly into Saturday morning.A sharp Canadian cold front arrives Saturdayearly in the north, reaching Billings and Miles City around 19Z and Sheridan closer to 21Z. Models continue to trend slightly stronger with the upper-level trough, allowing a brief window for snow as a baroclinic zone slides north to south through the region, with some upslope enhancement along the southern foothills. This is not a high-impact system, but snowfall totals of 13 inches are possible along the southern foothills. Rapidly falling temperatures could cause roads to transition from wet to icy Saturday afternoon and evening, including parts of Billings, with higher confidence in areas like Red Lodge and Sheridan. This will be something to monitor for weekend travel. Probabilities for more than an inch of snow are around 15% at Billings and 3555% along the southern foothills, with the main window for accumulation from Saturday morning through mid-evening.Much colder air settles in Saturday night into Sunday, with brisk northwest winds behind the front. Sub-zero wind chills are likely east of Rosebud County late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday range from the upper 20s in the west to single digits near the MontanaDakota border.A warming trend begins Sunday night as high pressure builds into the Rockies, promoting lee-side troughing and a return to westerly flow. Downslope warming continues into midweek as ridging remains entrenched over the western CONUS. Gusty winds are possible along the western foothills, with temperatures rebounding to above normalhighs in the 40s to lower 50s. Ensembles continue to hint at a possible backdoor cold front Tuesday night or Wednesday (around a 40% chance). If it materializes, colder air and light overrunning snow could develop, along with temperatures colder than currently forecast. That signal is worth keeping an eye on.Miller RobsonQ2 Morning [email protected] ...read more read less
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