California’s real estate market quietly did something important this fall: it showed signs of real, measurable recovery. According to the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), existing single-family home sales reached their highest level since September 2022, signaling renewed momentu m after several challenging years. But what does that actually mean for homeowners and buyers here in the Central Valley, and specifically Fresno? Let’s break it down. The Big Picture: California Is Stabilizing, Not Spiking Statewide, November home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 287,940, up: 1.9% from October 2.6% year over year While that’s encouraging, it’s worth noting California has now gone 38 consecutive months below the 300,000-unit sales benchmark. In other words: this is not a frenzy—it’s a slow, steady recovery. Prices reflect that same theme. Statewide median price: $852,680 Down 3.9% from October Essentially flat year over year This is a market catching its breath, not overheating. C.A.R.’s Chief Economist Jordan Levine summed it up well, noting that while mortgage rates are expected to trend lower in 2026, the decline will likely be modest. Translation: buyers and sellers shouldn’t wait for dramatic shifts, this is a market that rewards strategy, not timing gambles. Central Valley Reality: Local Markets Tell a More Nuanced Story While statewide headlines are useful, real estate is and always will be hyperlocal. The Central Valley continues to behave very differently than coastal California. Here’s what we’re seeing across key Valley counties: Fresno County Median price: ~$436,000–$440,000 Year-over-year change: ▼ ~0.9% Sales activity: ▼ ~17% What it means:Fresno prices have largely held steady, but buyer demand has cooled compared to last year. Homes are taking longer to sell, inventory is higher, and buyers are negotiating again—especially on homes that aren’t move-in ready or priced aggressively. This is a balanced-to-buyer-leaning market, not a distressed one. Madera County Median price: ~$427,500 Sales: ▼ more than 40% year over year Madera stands out as one of the sharpest slowdowns in the region. Higher price sensitivity and affordability pressures have pushed many buyers to pause, making pricing and presentation critical. Kings Merced Counties Kings: Modest price growth, strong sales increase Merced: Prices up ~6%, sales down modestly These counties continue to attract buyers priced out of Fresno and coastal markets. Value remains a key driver here. Tulare Kern Counties Prices are mostly flat to slightly down Sales declines suggest buyers are cautious but active This is classic late-cycle normalization not a downturn. Inventory Is Up, And That’s Actually Healthy One of the biggest shifts buyers and sellers are feeling is inventory. Unsold Inventory Index: 3.6 months statewide Up from both last month and last year Homes now take 32 days on average to sell (vs. 26 last year) In Fresno and much of the Central Valley, this means: More choices for buyers Fewer bidding wars Sellers need to price right and prepare properly The days of “throw a sign in the yard and name your price” are gone, but so are the days of panic. Mortgage Rates: Lower Than Last Year, Still the Wild Card The average 30-year fixed rate in November was 6.24%, down meaningfully from 6.81% a year ago. That reduction alone has helped bring buyers back into the market, but volatility remains. Buyers are acting when rates dip, not waiting indefinitely. What This Means If You Live in Fresno If You’re a Seller Pricing matters more than ever Condition and presentation matter again Overpricing will cost you time and leverage Well-priced homes in Fresno are still selling, but the margin for error is smaller. If You’re a Buyer You have leverage again Negotiations are back More inventory means better options This is the most balanced buying environment Fresno has seen in years. ...read more read less